Superforecasting: Biases

In situations even as simple as trying to predict who will win game 7 in the playoffs, we predict poorly. We tend to bypass the mental energy required for searching through data and formulating an educated answer and we try to “feel” who will win. When we do this with sports, that’s fine. But, we tend to formulate opinions of other people and make heavy life decisions with the same lack of logic. We must learn what our biases are and how they can prevent us from being effective.

“We have all been too quick to make up our minds and too slow to change them.” -Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner (pg.27)

superforecasting

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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