Superforecasting: Humility

We can all too easily think that our opinion is right. One we have our minds made up, we consider it cased closed and rule out any contradicting information. Coming from the best forecasters in the world, we must override this inherent laziness in ourselves and seek as many other opinions as possible, no matter how certain we are.

“Superforcasters constantly look for other views they can synthesize into their own.” -Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner (pg.123)

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

 

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